The antithesis of the Socialist Party in La Rochelle

The antithesis of the Socialist Party in La Rochelle. The antithesis, also of the UMP year last at La Baule. Nicolas Sarkozy opens today, for three days, the summer University for his party in Marseille, with the aim to provide the image of a political family United and calmed. Eight months of the presidential election, one which was built in the "break" to Chirac years, does not remain in the Government if he is a candidate in 2007 and now wants to by above all succeed in gathering his camp. And he's doing with all the more convinced that the economic results of the Government are good and that there be an argument in its favour at the time of the election.

Use a suitable speech

All the personalities of the majority will have the opportunity to express themselves and all the topics that get angry were deferred: Nicolas Sarkozy will devote his closing speech, Sunday, two consensual themes, youth and the environment. July 31, he found a kind of non-aggression with Villepin Pact which is no longer able to compete with him, and since then, he multiplied the signals of good will: he has given the green light to the merger Suez-GDF, leased the policy on employment, and estimated, it has a proxy label, that "in the Lebanon, the France honors its ambitions".

At the same time, he expanded his circles of reflection for newcomers: the sovereignists in the spring, Ministers questioning this summer (read here).

But gathering the diverse family of UMP means serve as a suitable speech, and this is where things get complicated. Nicolas Sarkozy has always had the art to be there where it does expected it not and politically contrary messages fight against insecurity while defending the double penalty, for example but this time the "muscle stretching" exercise, as it defines itself, is more complicated.

Convinced that "break" and "courage" images are securely attached, it tries to broaden its base by addressing themes social, Eurosceptic, critical on "rogue patterns"... to reach voters. The approach is totally assumed: "Must be taken into account all the contradictions of society", justifies Yves Jégo, one of his relatives. "Nicolas Sarkozy must be a moving target", continues Brice Hortefeux, "the rake should be broad enough while the most effective possible", said his communications adviser.

Of the "rebel to the heir.

But the shift is not without risk. Moving from the "rebel in the heir", as defined by Hervé Novelli, can prevent Nicolas Sarkozy to campaign on the theme of "change". A fortiori if the candidate eventually chosen by the PS embodies break even before detailed program, by the mere fact that she is a woman Ségolène Royal. Everything is matter of balance. "It is a compromise." "The limit set by Nicolas Sarkozy experience is should not renounce a radical change," agrees François Fillon.

However, until now, the President of the UMP has failed to find the consistency and the thread that accredits all the world. The speech he gave in Agen in June, against the strong euro and the control of public deficits, has been a true malaise among the heads of business (see page 5) but also in his troops, waiting for him that it gradually rectify shooting in the coming weeks.

As the "chiraquo-villepinistes", they avoid attacking the likely candidate for the UMP, but they intend to have their say on the project: a dozen of Ministers meets regularly (even last Wednesday) to avoid leaving a blank cheque to Nicolas Sarkozy, and a handful of members under the leadership of Hervé Mariton.