They corresponded more to the fundamental

It was one of the stars of the era Internet. At the beginning of the 2000s, Abby Joseph Cohen, the former strategist of Goldman Sachs, was one of Wall Street gurus. Very positive on the technological values at the end of the 1990s, she advised caution to customers in March 2000. Very noticed, this Council was followed by the collapse of the markets that we know. Gratified several awards for the quality of its forecasts, Abby Joseph Cohen returned to "Les echos" on the Internet bubble and Book Bank for 2010 stock market forecasts.

In the spring of 2000, you had advised customers to reduce their exposure to shares. That is what had motivated this recommendation

Since 1998, we stopped to give forecasts on the Nasdaq. We do not manage to establish correct valuation, because data on the benefits and the risk-taking lacked. The price-earnings ratios were potentially infinite! In March 2000, we have actually advised our customers reduce their exposure to us markets and greatly reduce their allocation in the TMT (telecom-media-technology). At the end of the 1990s, we were very positive on this segment. But, in the spring of 2000, we found that the courts reflected now all positive news. Valuations had reached high levels. They corresponded more to the fundamental. The course of the S & P 500 reached 25 - 28 times the profits and 50 on the TMT! To be honest, we have imagined, however, at the time, such fall of the market.

What was the reaction of stakeholders on the markets

The end of the 1990s has been an extraordinary period. Investors were not careful. They communicated their enthusiasm to analysts, who tended to be very positive on the market. Goldman Sachs team has endorsed the Council of caution, in the spring of 2000. The reactions from our customers have been various, but many of them thanked us later. The harshest criticism came from the media. We was even accused of having contributed to the collapse of the bubble.

Goldman Sachs was too positive at the beginning of the 2000s was accused...

In fact, we do are again optimistic about the evolution of that current American markets was 2001. Our forecasts suggested that the recession would end quickly, probably early 2002. But the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 have changed the context. The recession has become deeper and more long that we had anticipated him. In March 2003, we indicated our customers that the "fair value" equilibrium value, Editor's note was 40 over the course of the time. The S & P 500 has increased by 40.

How do you evolve today the US market and the Nasdaq What sectors promote you

The differences between large corporations of the Nasdaq and the S & P 500 are now slim. David Kostin, our American strategist, table on a rise in the S & P 500 to 1 250 - 1 300 points by the end of the year 10- 14, from the current level, Editor's note. The analysis of business conducive to confidence. They are a significant investment and balance sheets are strong. And, at the macroeconomic level, the recession is behind us. We expect a growth of 2 to 3 in 2010. The labour market may disappoint, although he expected an improvement late in the year. The only major risk is a very slow recovery in the rest of the world, especially in Europe. US groups are very oriented to export. They may suffer. At the sectoral level, we recommend that growth companies, including technology.

Do you think that the financial community is more cautious today

Investors are more cautious now. They are more sensitive to the recovery measures. The best recent performances were those of companies with strong recipient growths, generous and sustained cash flows in dividends. Assessment indicators are important for the constitution of portfolios. Currently, the ratio of median price-earnings of the S & P 500 is below 16, 25-28 beginning 2000.